The 2013 Delhi election stalemate

So the final tally in Delhi stands at BJP 32, AAP 28, Congress 8, Others 2. What are the options for government formation in Delhi.

Two clear messages that have come out do not elicit any hopes. AAP has, understandably, denied either taking or offering support to either congress or BJP. AAP has recieved the mandate based on Anti Congress BJP plank and it would be political harakiri if they attempted that.

AAP also hopes that the current results will help it gain more votes in case of a reelection. The non BJP votes and those who have voted for congress and others may gravitate towards AAP seeing the futility of voting anyone else.This is a clever ploy and may work in their favor.

BJP has also taken a principled stand stating, in absence of absolute majority, they’d not indulge in horse trading and would not approach anyone for government formation. Given their political stance and annihilation of congress, its amply clear to BJP that any manipulation by them for government formation is going to back fire and hurt their chances in 2014. On the other hand, a re-election coinciding with parliamentary elections will help them as people tend to vote the same party if assembly and parliamentary elections are held together. This will also give more time to Dr. Harshvardhan for campaigning as he was nominated just a month before elections.

The congress has already sent signals indicating their intentions to support an AAP government. Ofcourse this helps congress and to some extent BJP, if AAP forms a goveernment in Delhi with outside support. Political novices that they are, AAP is bound to misakes if in government. That is what congress would be looking for to pull the plug on the government and go to people trying expose AAP, hoping for a reversal in next elections.

AAP would do good to prepare fora reelections but as the Modi juggernaut rolls there maybe risk they can’t avoid. Trying to dismiss the Modi wave is the last thing they should do. They can take a cue from other state results like Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and MP to realize that the Modi wave is real and its coming at a great speed.